Alternative title(s)

Australian regional climate projections

Abstract

What is NARCliM?

The New South Wales and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project develops high-resolution regional climate projections that cover NSW and South-eastern Australia at a higher resolution and the Australasian continent and beyond at a lower resolution (named the NARCliM and CORDEX domains, respectively). Computer modelled climate projections are the best information we have available on our future climate. NARCliM has been designed to help government, industry and community in NSW and Australia plan for our future with robust regional and local scale data. The NARCliM project uses currently available global climate models (GCM) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) used in the IPCC reports and applies regional dynamical downscaling using the latest Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). NARCliM generates critical climate indices for a broad range of applications and climate change adaptation and risk analysis. The NARCliM project is led by the NSW Government with support from the ACT, South Australian, Victorian, and Western Australian governments, National Computational Infrastructure, Murdoch University and the University of New South Wales.

NARCliM releases NARCliM2.0 was released in August 2024. It is the most detailed regional climate projections available in Australia to date at 4km for South-eastern Australia and 20km scale for Australasia. We recommend using NARCliM2.0 as it is the most current generation, benefitting from several design and technical enhancements. NARCliM2.0 simulates the climate using five CMIP6 GCMs and two RCMs with continuous data from 1950 to 2100. The current release includes two GHG scenarios - SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0, with a third scenario, SSP2-4.5, available in 2025. NARCliM2.0 has been designed to WCRP-CORDEX standards and provides users with state-of-the-art climate projections for Australia.

NARCliM1.0 was released in 2014. It contains simulations from four CMIP3 GCMs and three regional climate models (RCM) using WRF3.3 for one future GHG scenario (SRES A2). Time periods included are 1990 to 2009, 2020 to 2039 and 2060 to 2079, with a grid resolution of 10km for South-eastern Australia (NARCliM domain) nested within a 50km grid for Australasia (CORDEX domain). NARCliM1.0 data has been used for a range of NSW climate adaptation and impact studies and climate change visualisations.

An enhanced set of climate projections (NARCliM1.5) were released in 2020. NARCliM1.5 contains simulations from three CMIP5 GCMs and two RCMs and two GHG scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The simulated time period is continuous from 1951 to 2100. NARCliM1.5 has the same grid resolution as NARCliM1.0 – a 10km grid nested within a 50km grid, and is useful for analysis of climate extremes, impact thresholds and stress testing.

Each generation of NARCliM is based on best available climate modelling and scenarios at the time of release. Consequently, there are expected differences between projections/results of the modelling but there are mostly similarities in trends (across NSW and over time).

For more information on NARCliM generations, please visit the AdaptNSW website (https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/narclim/using-narclim-data/narclim-generations-and-parameters).

Model output

NARCliM climate projections data will be available on the NSW Climate Data Portal (https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/climate-data-portal), when the Portal is released in late 2024. The data is also currently available at the National Computational Infrastructure at ANU (https://nci.org.au/). The Climate Data Portal will provide users access to NARCliM's most frequently used "core variables" at daily and monthly frequencies. Additionally, the Interactive climate change projections map (https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/projections-map) on AdaptNSW website provide translated climate data to a broad audience of users. For more information, contact us through the NARCliM Mailbox, narclim@environment.nsw.gov.au.

Presentation form

Model digital

Edition

Version 2.0

Dataset language

English

Dataset URI

https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/96ceaa59-9e26-47f2-a80e-64a3bf6f8d76

Purpose

Decision making on impacts and risks from and adaptation to climate change

Status

Completed

Spatial representation type

None

Spatial reference system

Additional information source

NARCliM output

The NARCliM models generate data for more than 100 variables. The most commonly used variables are provided on the Climate Data Portal in multiple formats. These include:

• 2-metre temperature (hourly)

• Daily maximum 2-metre temperature

• Daily minimum 2-metre temperature

• Precipitation

• Surface pressure

• 2-metre specific humidity (hourly)

• 10-metre wind speed (hourly)

• Surface evaporation

• Soil moisture

• Radiation (upward and downward longwave, upward and downward short wave)

• Forest fire danger index (FFDI)

• Areal potential evapotranspiration (APET)

For daily mean variables:

• Mean is average within daily values time: point values 1hour

• Max is maximum within daily values time: point values 1 hour

• Min is minimum within daily values time: point values 1 hour.

• Meantstep is average within daily values time: point values 300 second

• Maxtstep is maximum within daily values time: point values 300 second

• Mintstep is minimum within daily values time: point values 300 second

For monthly mean variables:

• Mean is average within monthly values time: point values 1hour

• Max is maximum within monthly values time: point values 1 hour

• Maxmean is mean of daily maximum within daily values: point value 1 hour

• Min is minimum within monthly values time: point values 1 hour

• Minmean is mean of daily minimum within daily values: point value 1 hour

• Meantstep is average within monthly values time: point values 300 second

• Maxtstep is maximum within monthly values time: point values 300 second

• Mintstep is minimum within monthly values time: point values 300 second

Data licensing

The Information Asset Register (IAR) contains information, data, documents and pages prepared by the NSW Government Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) and third parties. The Department supports and encourages the dissemination and exchange of publicly funded information and endorses the use of the Australian Governments Open Access and Licensing Framework (AusGOAL). Unless otherwise stated, all Department material available on the IAR is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).

Data disclaimer

Information available on the Information Asset Register (IAR) has been prepared in good faith, exercising all due care and attention, but no representation, express warranty or implied warranty, is made to the relevance, accuracy, completeness or fitness for purpose of this information in respect of any particular user circumstances. Climate data projections include an inherent degree of uncertainty. You are responsible for assessing the relevance of the data for your intended purposes.

The Department endeavours to make sure that information provided on the IAR is correct at the time of its publication. However, as necessary you should obtain independent advice before making any decision based on the information on this site. The information on this site is made available on the understanding that the State of NSW and the Department accept no responsibility or liability for any damage, cost, loss or expense incurred by you as a result of:

• Any error, omission or misrepresentation on this site

• Any malfunction or failure to function of this site

• Reliance upon this website’s material or any linked sites

• Without limiting the above, any delay, failure or error in recording, displaying or updating information, including but not limited to, data relating to credit holdings

Where there are known limitations to the information provided online, we will include an explanation of these limitations wherever possible. If there is any material that you consider to be misleading or inaccurate, please let us know and it will be corrected as soon as possible.

For all enquires, feedback and complaints relating to NARCliM data, please contact: narclim@environment.nsw.gov.au

Originating controlled vocabulary

Dataset reference date

Scope

dataset

DQ Completeness Commission

DQ Completeness Omission

DQ Absolute External Positional Accuracy

Responsible party

Metadata point of contact

Metadata date

2024-10-18T00:40:57.321047

Metadata language