Dataset
NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water
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Projected distribution of mangrove and saltmarsh in NSW estuaries under sea level rise

The projected distributions of mangrove and saltmarsh in this dataset were developed using the method described in Hughes et al (2022) which can be downloaded from https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.749950/full

The method involved the use of machine learning techniques to develop a statistical classification model for predicting the position of mangrove and saltmarsh in the present-day landscape in terms of topographic, hydrological and sedimentological predictor variables. That model was then used to identify and map positions in the future landscape displaying similar attributes. Three future landscapes were modelled based on the three SLR scenarios +0.5 m, +1.0 m and +1.5m. To bracket the potential outcomes three sets of projections were prepared. One where there was no restriction on future wetland locations in the landscape other than exclusion from urban areas, and two where future wetlands were restricted to specific natural and semi-natural land covers.

While the topographic, hydrological and sedimentological factors associated with the present-day distribution of mangrove and saltmarsh can provide a guide to where they might occur in future landscapes associated with SLR, numerous other factors not considered here will also have an influence (e.g. changes in catchment inflows, estuary entrance conditions and sediment supply; climate impacts on species present; existing tidal exclusion infrastructure; present and future management actions etc.).

Data and Resources

Metadata Summary What is metadata?

Field Value
Language English
Edition 1
Purpose This data set is one of the outputs from a state-wide, first-pass vulnerability assessment of mangrove and saltmarsh to SLR prepared under the Marine Estate Management Strategy Initiative 3. The purpose of the assessment was to identify estuaries where mangrove and saltmarsh have an apparently high or low vulnerability to SLR, so that further detailed research could be targeted to fill knowledge gaps. This data set can inform coastal planning at the estuary scale, but it does not replace the need for more detailed local scale assessment of management planning and actions for both existing and potential future wetland areas.
Frequency of change Not planned
Keywords WATER-Wetlands,MARINE-Estuaries,ECOLOGY-Habitat
Metadata Date 2022-10-17
Date of Asset Creation 2022-06-30
Date of Asset Publication 2023-03-16
License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
Geospatial Topic
  • Environment
  • Oceans
Extent

Dataset extent
Temporal Coverage From 2000-01-01
Datum WSG84 / UTM Zone 56S
Legal Disclaimer Read
Attribution NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water asserts the right to be attributed as author of the original material in the following manner: "© State Government of NSW and NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water 2023"